PETALING JAYA: Several states and federal territories are showing signs of a downward trend in the number of serious Covid-19 cases.

Negri Sembilan, for example, is seeing a drop in the average of daily new cases over a seven-day period, or the seven-day average, for hospital admissions, patients in intensive care units (ICUs) as well as those on ventilators.

This is among the findings of The Star‘s analysis of the Health Ministry’s daily Covid-19 numbers publicly available on the GitHub online hosting platform.

The data was used to calculate seven-day average figures for cases, hospital admissions as well as the number of patients in ICU and on ventilators in each state and federal territory.

The federal territory of Labuan has meanwhile recorded an ever bigger drop in daily cases, hospitalisation and ICU cases since June.

In Selangor, the seven-day average figures for the number of patients in ICU and those on ventilators has also started to fall.

Malaysia has fully vaccinated 34.9% of its total population as at Aug 17 but many parts of the country are still seeing a worryingly high number of new Covid-19 infections each day.

Are these positive developments a signal that the pandemic is about to decline in some of the states due to rising vaccinations?

Health experts said a consistent drop in new Covid-19 cases, deaths, hospitalisation and serious illnesses depends on several factors.

These include a high vaccination rate, effective public health measures, and high compliance with pandemic standard operating procedures (SOPs).

The spread of new variants such as Delta could also impact how fast the country can expect to turn the tide against the pandemic.

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman said that even with increased vaccination rates, everyone needs to continue sticking to public health measures such as wearing a face mask, ensuring hand hygiene and physical distancing until the burden on the country’s healthcare system eases.

“Those who are fully vaccinated should not be given special allowances on movement restrictions yet as the proportion of those fully vaccinated is still relatively low and more importantly, many of our hospitals are still dealing with a high number of active cases,” she said.

Medical Practitioners Coalition Association of Malaysia president Dr Raj Kumar Maharajah

Medical Practitioners Coalition Association of Malaysia president Dr Raj Kumar Maharajah said to achieve herd immunity, each state needs between 50% to 90% of its population to be immune to the virus and its mutated forms.

“For example, if 80% of the population is immunised and protected, then four out of five persons who comes into contact with an infected individual will not get sick.

“We need an average of 70% people to be vaccinated to see a significant impact on Covid-19 cases,” he said, adding that it is still too early to ease the SOP for fully vaccinated individuals due to mutated variants which are not immune to the vaccine.

Dr Raj Kumar said that the spread of Delta and other new variants could mean that vaccine booster shots may also be required.

“All those who want to let their guard down must be well informed of the risks involved and be responsible for their actions,” he said.

Universiti Malaya epidemiologist Prof Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang

Universiti Malaya epidemiologist Prof Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang meanwhile believes that it is still too early to tell whether vaccinations had caused the drop in cases in places such as Labuan.

“The decline in new cases in Labuan occurred before vaccination had even reached 20% of its population.

“We know that 20% is too low a level for adequate population level immunity to occur, so attributing the decline in cases to vaccination alone is probably incorrect.”

He noted that movement restrictions, coupled with aggressive testing and isolation by the health authorities in Labuan, may have helped control the number of new infections there.

“Even if vaccinations had preceded the decline, one needs to be aware of the ‘Post hoc ergo propter hoc’ fallacy, which means that just because one event follows another does not mean the former caused the latter,” he said.

Dr Awang Bulgiba said the impact of vaccination on new cases, deaths and hospitalisation would depend on which segments of the population were widely vaccinated.

“If we manage to vaccinate a large section of the population who are at risk of severe infection such as older persons and those with comorbidities, we may see some improvement in severe disease and hospitalisation rates.

“However, we may not necessarily see a drastic decline in new disease rates because the ones at risk of infection maybe younger and more mobile, so they will have more contact with others and hence are at risk of infection, albeit milder in nature,” he said.

“What is happening in the United Kingdom with its drastic easing of restrictions will provide us with a clearer picture how this will play out,” he said.

Britain lifted movement restrictions in the country on July 19 despite high Covid-19 cases due to the spread of Delta and is relying on vaccinations to protect most people from serious illness.

Dr Awang Bulgiba said there are other potential factors that affect Covid-19 figures, such as the varying efficacy rates of the different vaccines, prevailing variants and the degree of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

“Hospitalisation and death rates are influenced by the quality of care, which in turn is influenced by the burden on the healthcare system.

“It is also influenced by how fast serious cases deteriorate, which is dependent on the virulence of the prevailing variants.”

Check out below which other states and federal territories are seeing a decline in hospital admissions and other indicators. Click/tap the pink dropdown menus above each chart to search for other states: