Maybank IB forecasts 100-basis point hike in OPR over next 12 months


KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) is estimating 100 foundation point (bps) enhance in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) for the interval between the second half (H2) of 2022 and the primary half of next yr (H1 2023).

Chief economist (*12*) Ilias stated this was following Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) accommodative financial coverage course of which started with the 25bps increment in May.

He anticipated BNM to announce 25 bps inside this week’s financial coverage assembly (MPC) and one other 25 bps by the fourth quarter 2022, and an extra 50bps in H1 2023.

“Our estimation is each 25bps hike will mainly shave actual gross home product (GDP) progress by 0.2 share factors unfold over 12 months.

“And the implications of accelerating the OPR embrace the elevating of mortgage reimbursement by three per cent,” he stated at a digital Maybank IB H2 2022 market outlook briefing right now.

(*12*) stated BNM would enhance the OPR on account of rising home demand and rising core inflation charge.

He stated Maybank IB has revised upwards its inflation charge forecast for this yr to three.4 per cent from 2.7 per cent beforehand, and elevated the inflation charge projection for 2023 to 4.1 per cent from 2.5 per cent.

“This was as a result of we’ve got integrated greater costs of meals objects like cooking oil and hen, beginning this month following the upper ceiling worth for normal entire hen and the removing of the value subsidy for bottled cooking oil in addition to the idea of a gasoline subsidy overview next yr,” he added. – Bernama

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