Maybank IB maintains GDP target at 6% for 2022 despite floods

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KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) has maintained its gross home product (GDP) development target for Malaysia at 6.0 per cent for 2022, despite the injury attributable to the floods.

Its chief analyst Suhaimi Ilias mentioned the financial institution believed that the floods wouldn’t trigger extended disruptions by way of provide scarcity.

“I believe the flooding on the home entrance actually appears to be like extreme, however the message we get from the business is (that it is) manageable…no indication that it’ll be a significant disruption to manufacturing actions, even for the plantation industries additionally,” he mentioned.

He mentioned this in the course of the Maybank IB 2022 ASEAN Macro and Malaysia Outlook webinar right this moment.

Suhaimi mentioned based on the insurance coverage business estimate, the claims associated to flood damages is round RM3 billion, whereas damages particularly to households that are doubtless not insured is about RM1.5 billion, utilizing figures based mostly on authorities help offered.

“Over the long term, at least it (the influence) ought to be neutralised, in actual fact it might be extra optimistic (transferring ahead),” he added.

Meanwhile, on the native forex outlook, Maybank IB head of FX Research and Strategy for Global Markets Saktiandi Supaat mentioned the ringgit can be supported by resilient oil costs and financial rebound, however the rising US Treasury yields, if it proceed to take action, might restrict the positive factors.

“We preserve a mildly optimistic outlook for the ringgit relative to the US greenback from across the center of 2022, with help largely from exterior components – international financial restoration, an eventual mildly softer dollar setting, oil value and renminbi stability,” he mentioned.

On the home entrance, Saktiandi mentioned the native forex could also be supported by the federal government’s transfer to an endemic situation as vaccine progress improves.

“We predict the ringgit to be at round 4.18 (versus the US greenback) for probably the most a part of the primary half of 2022, ending the 12 months at 4.10. For 2023, we’re forecasting the ringgit to understand barely to 4.05 degree by the top of the 12 months,” he added.

However, he mentioned the potential of the General Election this 12 months might add some volatility to the native forex however the influence wouldn’t be lengthy. – Bernama



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