The Covid-19 Omicron wave has arrived in Malaysia, with five-digit each day circumstances this previous week (February 2022).
What can we observe about this SARS-CoV-2 Omicron viral variant from different nations to this point, what are projections for Malaysia for the subsequent three to 4 months, and what can we do about the Omicron surge?
What we all know to this point
Here is a abstract of Omicron to this point.
The first Omicron case in the world was reported final Nov 24 (2021) from South Africa.
It is now discovered in additional than 160 nations, and has changed the Delta variant as the dominant SARS-CoV-2 pressure.
Omicron is totally different than Delta in the following methods.
One, in line with the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Omicron “spreads more easily” than the authentic SARS-CoV- 2 virus and the Delta variant.
Two, an Imperial College London report estimates that Omicron has a 5.4 instances larger danger of re-infection, in comparison with Delta (a re-infection is a second Covid-19 an infection after you’ve recovered from a primary one).
And three, a report in the Nature science journal states that these with breakthrough infections are likelier to have Omicron than Delta (a breakthrough an infection is a Covid-19 an infection in somebody who’s already absolutely vaccinated).
That unhealthy information is counter-balanced by some “good news”.
One, in line with the US CDC, Omicron infections “generally cause less severe disease than prior variants”.
Two, the US CDC additionally reported that Omicron infections have “shorter stays and less frequent ICU admissions” in comparison with prior variants.
And three, the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe reported that Omicron has a “comparatively lower rate of hospitalisations and deaths” – largely due to vaccinations.
Divergent insurance policies
Commuters go with out sporting face masks at Copenhagen Central Station, following Denmark’s choice to raise all Covid-19 restrictions, regardless of an increase in circumstances. — Bloomberg
Countries have responded to Omicron in anticipated and sudden methods.
Expectedly, practically all nations have quickened their vaccination and booster programmes.
Equally expectedly, practically all nations continued their non-pharmaceutical interventions, similar to face masks and bodily distancing necessities, and a few degree of motion restriction.
This year (2022) to this point, there have been two sudden items of Covid information, each from Europe.
On Feb 2, Denmark lifted all their Covid-19 restrictions, regardless of a rise in circumstances.
On Feb 4, Austria launched a compulsory vaccination regulation for all adults, with a positive of as much as €3,600 (RM17,206.20).
This pair of fully reverse insurance policies in two European nations spotlight how Covid-19 insurance policies could be wildly divergent, even in nations with comparable traits.
Omicron can also be coinciding with divergent conditions in different nations.
Ottawa in Canada has declared a state of emergency on account of protests in opposition to Covid-19 restrictions, however “Fortress” Australia has reopened its borders to fully-vaccinated vacationers for the first time in two full years.
And Hong Kong introduced 614 Covid-19 circumstances on Feb 7 (2022), a dramatic quantity for a metropolis of seven million individuals with solely 14,000 complete circumstances since Jan 2020.
(The same proportion would see solely 60,000 complete circumstances for Malaysia, in comparison with our precise complete of two.9 million complete circumstances.)
Predicting the numbers
The excellent news is that the Omicron surge in different nations seem to peak inside roughly six to eight weeks and drops sharply thereafter.
This is a quicker peak and quicker drop in comparison with Delta.
However, the unhealthy information is that the Omicron peak of each day circumstances seems to be roughly two to 4 instances larger than the Delta peak.
The different excellent news is that 99.5% of all new circumstances in Malaysia on Feb 7 (2022) are in Category 1 or 2.
However, the accompanying unhealthy information is {that a} surge in circumstances could overwhelm our public hospitals simply by sheer weight of numbers.
During the Delta wave final year (2021), Malaysia noticed five-digit each day circumstances between July 15 to Oct 2 – a complete of 11.5 weeks (80 days).
Therefore, it’s doable that Malaysia will see five-digit each day circumstances for the subsequent 5 to 10 weeks, earlier than plateauing and dropping.
Of course, the velocity, peak and length all will depend on what public insurance policies are carried out.
Equally, extra correct predictions and fashions needs to be publicised by the Health Ministry, e.g. utilizing the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) mathematical mannequin.
There are two wild playing cards in how Malaysia’s Omicron surge can play out this year (2022).
Firstly, the Johor state elections have to be taken under consideration.
There are two main variations between the Johor elections in comparison with the 2021 Malacca and Sarawak state elections.
One, Johor will contain many extra registered voters (roughly 2.6 million), in comparison with Malacca (500,000) or Sarawak (1.3 million), on account of the Undi18 coverage being carried out for the first time.
Two, the Malacca and Sarawak elections came about earlier than the Omicron variant actually arrived in Malaysia (i.e. Nov 20 and Dec 18, 2021, respectively).
Secondly, there may be the risk of a normal election this year, which adjustments the calculations of all SEIR mathematical fashions.
Large and various nations have safely held nationwide elections throughout Covid-19, like South Korea in April 2020, Canada final September and Japan final October.
These had additionally concerned a whole bunch of different elections, referenda and plebiscites at the state, provincial, regional or municipal ranges.
Therefore, the Election Commission of Malaysia should already begin getting ready for the subsequent normal elections, whether or not it’s going to happen this year (2022) or subsequent (when the present Parliamentary time period will finish in July).
Dealing with the surge
On the different finish of the spectrum, Austrians wait in line to get vaccinated as obligatory Covid-19 vaccination for adults is carried out in the nation. — AP
There are three particular steps we Malaysians, together with the authorities, can take to assist cope with this Omicron surge.
Firstly, we should all get boosted, as the proof exhibits that vaccine boosters may help scale back the severity of an Omicron an infection.
If Delta is the “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, then Omicron could possibly be the “pandemic of the unboosted”.
Therefore, we should work onerous to cowl the 32% (or roughly a million) senior residents who’re nonetheless unboosted.
The enlargement of vaccinations to incorporate kids aged 5 to 11 years outdated since Jan 31 (2022) was additionally a step in the proper course.
Secondly, it was introduced on Feb 7 (2022) that the Covid-19 National Rapid Response Task Force (RRTF) will likely be reactivated.
This is the less-famous cousin to the Greater Klang Valley Task Force (GKVTF), however no much less necessary.
This reactivation is well timed and will finally show to be pivotal.
However, its position, phrases of reference and interactions with the present Health Ministry (MOH) infrastructure must be managed fastidiously.
It is necessary that long-term efforts to strengthen the whole well being system can’t be at the mercy of short-term fixes.
Thirdly, it’s well timed that the MOH has introduced clearer Home Isolation protocols on Feb 7 (2022), backed by new medical pointers for Covid-19 anti-viral medicines.
However, it’s equally necessary to consciously and systematically add three parts, i.e.:
- Integrated personal sector involvement
- Strong controls to make sure that the self-testing is finished accurately and reported actually, and
- Clever use of digital instruments (like the MySejahtera app, but additionally digital Covid Assessment Centres).
Caution comes first
It is tough to see an endgame for Covid-19 for now, regardless of some scattered optimistic views from epidemiologists or virologists that the Omicron variant is one step nearer to an equilibrium between Homo sapiens and Covid-19.
Public well being is neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
At its most elementary, public well being operates on a precautionary precept.
That implies that Malaysia nonetheless must strengthen our well being system and our inhabitants for Omicron, and we should do all that we are able to to stop ourselves, our family members and our group from getting contaminated.
Dr Khor Swee Kheng is a doctor specialising in well being insurance policies and international well being. He tweets as @DrKhorSK. The views expressed listed here are fully his personal. For extra data, e-mail [email protected]. The data supplied is for academic and communication functions solely. The Star doesn’t give any guarantee on accuracy, completeness, performance, usefulness or different assurances as to the content material showing in this column. The Star disclaims all accountability for any losses, injury to property or private damage suffered immediately or not directly from reliance on such data.
