(Reuters) – Here is a snapshot of what to look out for next in the Ukraine disaster after the newest U.S.-Russia talks produced – as anticipated – no breakthrough.
U.S WRITTEN RESPONSE TO RUSSIA’S SECURITY PROPOSALS
Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated the U.S. aspect would reply in writing next week to a set of safety proposals that Russia introduced in December, together with a requirement to bar Ukraine from ever becoming a member of NATO. A proper U.S. rejection may present Russia with a pretext to maneuver forward with the unspecified army response it has threatened. Tatiana Stanovaya, head of political evaluation agency R.Politik, stated Moscow wanted a written U.S. reply “as cast-iron proof of a refusal to supply Russia with safety ensures. This is partly a lure, in fact, as a result of any such written response will likely be used to discredit the U.S. negotiating place.”
Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that they had agreed to additional discussions after the U.S. aspect delivers its response, with the risk of a gathering later between presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.
RUSSIA’S MILITARY BUILD-UP
Russia has had an estimated 100,000 troops inside placing distance of the Ukrainian border since November, whereas insisting it has no intention to invade. In the previous week, it has moved troops and tools 1000’s of miles from its far east area to Belarus to participate in what it calls joint workouts till Feb. 20. As Belarus borders Ukraine, this opens a brand new entrance for a possible Russian assault and ensures that diplomacy in the coming weeks will happen in opposition to the background of an ongoing present of Russian army power.
CALL FOR RUSSIA TO RECOGNISE EAST UKRAINE ‘INDEPENDENCE’
Russia’s parliament will maintain consultations next week on an concept to enchantment to Putin to recognise two pro-Russian breakaway areas in jap Ukraine as unbiased states. That could be a significant escalation that may kill off diplomatic efforts and will function a authorized pretext for Putin to ship in troops to “defend” Russians there from Ukraine. Officially the Kremlin has reacted coolly to the parliamentary proposal to this point, however it provides to Putin’s accessible choices and retains the West guessing as to his true intentions. Tension stays excessive in and round the breakaway areas, the place the United States has stated Russia is plotting acts of provocation to create a pretext for invasion. Russia accuses Ukraine of planning to retake the areas by power, which it denies.
EU AND TURKISH DIPLOMACY
The United States and its allies have rallied to challenge unity after President Joe Biden induced consternation in Kyiv by saying an invasion of Ukraine could be a catastrophe for Moscow however a “minor incursion” may result in a “combat” between Western allies on reply. The French and German international ministers are anticipated to go to jap Ukraine in an additional present of solidarity with Kyiv. French President Emmanuel Macron stated the European Union, which has been largely sidelined in the disaster, ought to open its personal monitor of diplomacy with Moscow. And Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan says he desires to convey collectively the Ukrainian and Russian presidents and plans to go to Ukraine in early February. Russia, nonetheless, says it desires to maneuver quick and isn’t ready to let talks drag on indefinitely.
(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
