KUALA LUMPUR: The Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) concerns are prone to resurface in the six months time as coal prices stay elevated, in keeping with Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB).
The funding financial institution stated it might take a pair extra rounds of profitable move by means of to completely persuade the market of the integrity of Tenaga Nasional Bhd
’s (TNB) mechanism.
It stored its earnings forecasts for TNB however lowered its goal worth to RM8.70 from RM9.30 to replicate a heightened danger profile from probably long-drawn ICPT concerns.
On Friday, the authorities introduced that the tariff charges could be maintained into the second half of 2022 (H2 2022).
Thus home customers will proceed to take pleasure in a 2.0 sen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) rebate, whereas industrial and business customers will proceed to bear a 3.7 sen per kWh surcharge.
The authorities, in flip, will cowl subsidies value RM5.8 billion.
Maybank IB stated at the time of writing, the authorities’s fee particulars had but to be disclosed.
“We estimate RM1.2 billion could be recovered from the 3.7sen per kWh surcharge on industrial and business customers.
“Coupled with the RM5.8 billion of direct subsidies by the authorities, we estimate TNB ought to get better RM7 billion for H2 2022,” it added.
Kenanga Research stated gas prices rocketed globally with the Indonesia’s coal benchmark worth leaping 54 per cent to US$282.02 per tonne on common for April and May, versus the common of US$183.52 per tonne in the first quarter (Q1) of 2022.
Under the Regulatory Period 3, the reference charges are US$79 per tonne for coal.
“Assuming coal worth stays at a mean of US$282.02 in the second quarter (Q2) of 2022 with an unchanged coal technology combine as Q1 2022, complete coal value would enhance RM3.28 billion quarter-on-quarter in Q2 of economic 12 months 2022 (FY2022),” the analysis home stated.
As such, complete coal value for the first half of FY2022 could be RM8.6 billion or 24.9 sen per kWh greater based mostly on the coal base worth of US$79 per tonne.
“Nonetheless, beneath the Incentive-Based Regulation mechanism, the elevated value will finally move by means of to customers or partly offset by the Electricity Industry Fund fund with a six-month lag,” it famous.
The analysis home maintained its “outperform” score for TNB with a goal worth of RM11.06.
Kenanga Research additionally famous that at current, there was no element pertaining to tariff surcharge or rebate in H2 2022.
At 12.12pm, TNB shares have been 1.5 sen decrease at RM8.08, with 2.72 million shares traded. – Bernama
